Peter Marsh Chase Betting: Major Malarkey still on the upgrade

The Peter Marsh has been won by some top chasers in the past, and though there might not be anything in the same class as dual winner Jodami in the field this time around, this year's renewal has a very competitive look to it. Simon Baker goes through the runners, and identifies one that looks to have slipped under the radar...

Of all the 17 entries, the one most obviously on an upward curve is King Fontaine, who has won his last four races. Both his wins this season came over the Peter Marsh Course and distance, first when beating Maktu by a head off a mark of 122 and then following up with an easy success off 127. King Fontaine has taken a hammering at the hands of the handicapper after the latter of those wins, set to race off a mark of 142 on Saturday, but he's quite probably capable of even better and can't be ruled out, for all further progress will be required.

Maktu is weighted to easily reverse form with King Fontaine judged on their meeting early in November, now 16 lb better off with that rival for a head beating at Haydock, and he shaped as if still in form when fifth in the Welsh National last time, fading late having failed to settle early stepped up in trip. Maktu isn't necessarily as progressive as King Fontaine, and wouldn't be a certainty to get the better of him this time, notwithstanding that massive pull in the weights, but there isn't any obvious reason why he shouldn't run his race, and he does have claims.

Buffalo Bob is another who is prominent in the betting, and he has proved a real credit to his resurgent trainer Kim Bailey in recent months, winning a handicap chase at Newbury's Hennessy meeting and running well more often than not otherwise. He performed creditably in a good-quality three-mile-two-furlong event at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, despite seeming just stretched by the trip, and should run his usual good race from the front, though there is a suspicion that the handicapper is beginning to take his measure.

Major Malarkey has progressed markedly over fences this term, winning two of his three starts. His most recent success came in a well-contested novice handicap at Newbury in December, where he overcame a bad mistake five out to defy a mark of 121 in handy fashion. A 7 lb rise for that success doesn't look hard by any means - indeed, he comes out top on Timeform ratings for Saturday even though he's set to race from 3 lb out of the handicap. His form from last time looks strong, and he looks one of the more attractive runners at the prices.

Khachaturian has only had two outings this season, neither of which were over fences. He seemed badly in need of his reappearance in a red-hot fixed-brush handicap hurdle at Haydock, and then finished a pretty encouraging third in a "jumpers' bumper" at Southwell. He ran some good races as a novice chaser last term, winning a maiden at Kempton and a handicap at Bangor off 130. He was an excellent fifth the Kim Muir at the Festival on his penultimate start that term, doing well to last as long as he did after forcing a strong pace. He will be 3 lb lower on Saturday, and that is clearly a workable mark judged on last season's form, though he does have his share of quirks, which tempers enthusiasm somewhat.

The Irish raider Becauseicouldntsee arrives on the back of a career-best effort in a very valuable three-mile handicap chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. That was his first outing in a handicap, having shown useful form as a novice last season, the highlight of which came when runner-up in the NH Chase at Cheltenham. Becauseicouldntsee will race off a BHA mark of 144 on Saturday (ran off ITC 136 at Leopardstown), and further progress will be required to go one better.

Paul Nicholls' only entry is Take The Breeze, who improved plenty when runner-up in a valuable handicap at Ascot last time. Having just his second start at around three miles, Take The Breeze travelled notably well at Ascot and kept on well to finish clear with the winner Massini's Maguire despite getting hampered three out. Take The Breeze is 6 lb higher now than at Ascot, so further progress is required, though the yard have had several runners defy top-weight in valuable handicap already this season.

Charlie Longsdon has two entries, both of whom have a squeak. Palypso de Creek was second to Our Vic in the race last year from a mark 4 lb higher than the one off which he will race on Saturday. He hasn't really gone on from that run, though it's worth pointing out that he was a very well-backed favourite when falling in a course and distance event won by King Fontaine on his reappearance. Palypso de Creek has since run poorly in a valuable handicap chase at Cheltenham, perhaps feeling the effects of his fall the time before, but would look just about the best handicapped of these if able to bounce back to last year's form.

Longsdon's other runner is the 11-y-o Far More Serious, who has thrived since joining his new yard in 2008. He won two handicaps last season, and looked as good as ever when runner-up at Ascot on his reappearance. He unseated at Sandown last time, but has sound place claims at least on the pick of his form.

Sa Suffit proved a fine advertisement for James Ewart's skills as a trainer, winning three of his five starts, among which the best performance came when defying a BHA mark of 144 in a two-and-a-half mile handicap chase at Wetherby. He goes well fresh and should stay three miles, though he will likely need to improve for the trip to win a competitive event like this off 149.

Frankie Figg is on a career-high mark now having won the Grand Sefton over the National fences at Aintree on his latest start, and he's probably only going to be of interest when tackling those fences again, the impression for now being that he's handicapped out of things over conventional obstacles.

Buena Vista ran an excellent race in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton on his only start over fences this season, but has since been well beaten off this mark four times over hurdles, including in the Lanzarote at Kempton last weekend.

Alan King's Bakbenscher won twice over fences last season, despite the general malaise of the yard, so there is hope he can do better now that the stable is in much finer fettle, though his chase mark looks incredibly stiff on anything he's done in his career to date, and even if he can find the massive improvement needed to figure, he'll need to jump much more fluently than he has so far over fences.

The excellent Nick Williams staged something of a revival with Dom d'Orgeval last term, for all he didn't win a race, producing a couple of really good efforts in strong handicaps at Newbury and Aintree in the spring. He is 7 lb out of the weights here however, and ran poorly at Chepstow on his reappearance.

Madison du Berlais, Dream Alliance and Atouchbetweenacara are all well handicapped on their old form, but are very difficult to fancy on anything they've been doing lately.

Overall this looks competitive, with just 5 lb separating 11 of the 17 entries on Timeform ratings, but at the prices the one that makes the most appeals is Major Malarkey, whose form from last time has quite possibly been underestimated by the handicapper.

Recommendation

Back Major Malarkey @ 15.5

A simple Timeform summary, 'star ratings' and 1-2-3 selections for any race in Britain, Ireland and North America can be found at http://www.timeform.com/free